Race to 270: November 4

As the Nov. 3 presidential election draws to a close, a number of swing states remain up for grabs in tight races across the country, meaning it could be days before all votes are counted and a winner is announced. The delay in vote counting was somewhat expected this year as almost 100 million Americans voted early; either through mail-in ballots, ballot drop boxes, or in-person early voting. 

This unprecedented number of early votes is record-breaking and accounts for almost 75 percent of the total votes cast in the 2016 presidential election, indicating that 2020 may have one of the largest voter turnouts in decades once all votes are counted. 

As of 7:00 Wednesday morning, CNN reports Biden with 224 electoral votes and Trump with 213 electoral votes. While both Fox News and The New York Times also project Trump to have 213 electoral votes, they vary in their projections for Biden. The New York Times projects Biden lead to be slightly larger with 227 electoral votes, and Fox News puts Biden’s total at 238 electoral votes. 

While each news outlet has made their own predictions and all states continue to count votes, the general consensus is that Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona are the states to watch in the coming days.

The states of Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia have all reported over 90 percent of their votes, with Trump holding narrow leads of around two percentage points in historically red Georgia and battleground state North Carolina. In Wisconsin, Biden leads by less than one percentage point.

With about 75 percent of votes counted in key swing state Pennsylvania, Trump leads by around 12 percentage points and as of now, it looks probable that Trump could take the 20 electoral votes from the state.

Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona all have around 85 percent of their votes counted. In Michigan, another key swing state this year, Trump leads by less than one percentage point. Arizona looks to be more clear cut, with Biden up five percentage points. Biden also holds a small lead of about one percentage point in Nevada, a state that is not set to update its results until Thursday.

While not much is certain in this election, what we do know is that it could take days for every vote to be counted. Even if a state looks to lean towards a particular candidate as of now, the large volume of absentee ballots means that either candidate has the ability to pull ahead as those votes are counted. We’ll continue to update you on election results daily until someone wins the race to 270.