Race to 270: November 6

Once again, yesterday’s vote totals have further shifted the race in Biden’s favor. While neither candidate won a state on Nov. 5, Biden gained ground in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada. As of 9:00 a.m. Nov. 6, every battleground state except Nevada has counted 90 percent or more of their vote, meaning we could start to see official totals (and possibly a winner) within the next few days. 

Because many of the votes counted throughout the day yesterday were absentee ballots from large counties—votes that are known to lean heavily Democratic—Biden was able to maintain his leads in Nevada and Arizona. He leads in Nevada by 0.9 percentage points with around 89 percent of the vote counted. 

In Arizona, Biden’s lead has fallen from 2 to 1.5 percent, meaning Trump has gained ground. Arizona has counted 90 percent of their vote, and the next batch of results from Maricopa County (Arizona’s largest) are expected to be announced during the day today.

North Carolina has 95 percent of the vote counted, and Trump continues to lead by about 1.4 percent. In the other southern battleground state of Georgia, Trump has lost the lead and trails Biden by less than 0.1 of a percent – that’s just over 1,000 votes. This race is the closest in the country, and with 99 percent of the vote counted, a small shift in any direction could earn either candidate Georgia’s 16 electoral votes. 

In Pennsylvania, a swing state Trump needs in order to win the presidency, Biden has taken the lead by 0.1 percent, with 95 percent of the vote counted. These results have shown that mail-in ballots, even in red counties, are very Democratic. 

Currently, North Carolina is the only battleground state where Trump leads (Alaska, which has three electoral votes, is the only other undeclared state, and it will likely go to Trump). In order to win, Trump will need to maintain his lead in North Carolina, win Pennsylvania, and prevent Biden from winning any two-state combination of Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. 

Counties across the country are expected to release more results throughout the day today. We’ll update you tomorrow morning on the race to 270.